Spatio-temporal Analysis of the Association between Neighbourhood Land Use and Seasonal Property Crime Patterns

• In Event: Criminology of Place

Abstract

The seasonal variation of property crime is hypothesized to be associated with seasonal routine activity patterns. Past studies generally analyze the seasonal variation of crime for large areas (i.e., cities or countries) but have not analyzed seasonal crime patterns at the neighbourhood-scale or investigated the relationships between seasonal crime and land use characteristics representative of routine activities. This research explores the seasonal variation of property crime at the neighbourhood scale for fifteen seasons (Spring 2011 to Autumn 2014) in the Regional Municipality of Waterloo, Ontario, Canada. Applying a Bayesian spatio-temporal modeling approach, this research identifies an overall decreasing property crime trend for the study region and highlights neighbourhoods with unusually high property crime risk for each season. Analyzing neighbourhood land use characteristics representative of routine activities, this research finds that parks are associated with property crime in summer seasons and that commercial land use and on-premise alcohol outlets are positively associated with property crime for all seasons. Results suggest that seasonal shifts in routine activities influence spatio-temporal crime patterns, particularly the increasing use of parks in warm weather.

Authors

• Matthew Quick, University of Waterloo

• Jane Law, University of Waterloo