The Role of Assault and Attempted Homicide on the Evolution of Homicide. The Case of Germany, 1977-2011

• In Event: Understanding International Trends in Homicide, Crime, and Violence

Abstract

This presentation analyzes trends in homicide and serious assault in Germany for the period 1977 to 2011. Data are taken from the Interpol International Crime Statistics and the European Sourcebook of Crime and Criminal justice Statistics. They show divergent trends for these two violent crimes. According to police statistics, homicide increased until the mid-90s and followed a downward trend afterwards; while serious assaults increased gradually throughout the series. This apparent paradox could be explained by two main causes. On the one hand, the decrease in homicides mirrors a decline in the use of firearms in violent attacks, which has resulted in a reduction in the lethality of such attacks. On the other hand, the influence of improvements in medical techniques and in the quality of professional medical care services for victims in Germany has also contributed to a decrease in the number of lethal victims. This suggests that potential homicide cases have been classified as attempted homicides or serious assaults. The presentation discusses the consequences of such a change in the classification on the divergent trends observed for both offenses.

Authors

• Antonia Linde, Open University of Catalonia

• Marcelo F. Aebi, University of Lausanne