Using Trajectories of Crime to Forecast Future Crime Patterns

• In Event: Crime and Place: Understanding Crime Patterns

Abstract

Weisburd and colleagues’ analysis of street segments have been highly influential in shaping understanding of crime events both spatially and temporally. While street segments offer relatively small spatial units of analysis, to date only large temporal units have been considered (~12 months). This study extends insight into the criminality of place by considering how useful street segments are for short term forecasting of crime. Using 15 years of Vancouver crime data we estimate monthly street segment trajectories and assess their utility in capturing short term crime trends. Our findings have implications for operational crime prevention.

Authors

• Michael Townsley, Griffith University

• Joseph Clare, Murdoch University, Australia

• Dan Birks, Griffith University

• Jonathan Corcoran, University of Queensland