Diagnosing Dosage: Diminishing Marginal Returns of Community Supervision

• In Event: Parole and Community Supervision

Abstract

With strained budgets, correctional agencies are increasingly forced to be more efficient with limited resources in community supervision. As the decarceration movement gains political traction and conditionally released populations continue to rise, the question of efficiency in community supervision becomes all the more pertinent and dire. Equating efficiency to conceptions of dosage (supervision duration and intensity), the purpose of this study is to investigate a point of diminishing returns when community supervision may be reduced and ultimately terminated, and how such returns are gauged by way of community supervision outcomes. Using a large purposive sample of Washington State felony offenders, we employ a diminishing marginal returns approach coupled with propensity score modeling to investigate the issue of supervision dosage and its relationship to technical violations and recidivism. The findings hold the potential to provide not only a way to systematically identify appropriate supervision intensity based on offender risk and need, but may also suggest when supervision may no longer be effective at reducing such outcomes. Implications for decisions regarding supervision intensity and duration are discussed in the context of evidence-based practices.

Authors

• Christopher M. Campbell, Portland State University

• Zachary Hamilton, Washington State University

• Ruibin Lu, Washington State University