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Juvenile risk assessments use static (criminal history) and dynamic factors (family or school) in order to predict recidivism. Research has indicated that Black juveniles may be more adversely affected by static factors like criminal history. This may be due to disproportionate surveillance and differential treatment of Black juveniles. The purpose of this study was to examine the impact of static, dynamic, and total risk score on Black (46.8%) and White (53.2%) juveniles. The Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory was used to measure risk factors. The sample included 571 juveniles (M age =15 years, SD = 1.5 years). Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) was used to determine how well above chance risk score predicted two-year recidivism. Results indicate that static (ROC = 0.595, p < 0.01) dynamic (ROC = 0.618, p < 0.001) and total (ROC = 0.626, p < 0.001) risk scores were significant predictors of recidivism for White juveniles. Static, dynamic, and total risk scores were not significant predictors of recidivism for Black juveniles. Results indicate that cumulative risk score is the best way to predict future recidivism. Implications are discussed.
William Timothy Miller, University of Cincinnati
Christina Campbell, University of Cincinnati
Valerie Rose Anderson, University of Cincinnati