Predictive Policing as a Tool for Crime Prevention?

• In Event: Roundtable: Policing Strategies

Abstract

How can predictive policing be used effectively as a tool for crime prediction and prevention? Predictive analytics refers to the use of statistical modelling to anticipate on future events by learning from the available historical data, i.c. the large amount of crime data available in police databases. Although there already exist applications of predictive policing used by law enforcement, scientific studies of predictive analysis are rare. This is particularly the case with respect to empirical evidence of the effectiveness of predictive policing and the effect of methodological choices such as grid resolution, method, input variables, temporal resolution, etc. Current applications are also very different methodologically, making it difficult for a police department wanting to introduce predictive policing to make an evidence-based choice for one of the applications or to develop a predictive policing system internally. The envisaged research wishes to contribute to addressing these significant gaps in the current scientific knowledge of predictive policing and its applications.

Author

• Wim Hardyns, Ghent University