Initial Backfire and Criminal Hormesis: Why Some Crime Prevention Interventions Can Increase Offending before Benefits are Observed

• In Event: Crime and Place: Opportunity and Offending

Abstract

It is usually assumed that well-designed crime prevention tactics reduce offending either immediately or shortly after implementation. However, some studies have revealed instances where crime actually increases immediately following an intervention before declining thereafter. This trend, called hormesis, has been observed in other fields such as biology, toxicology, and medicine and these disciplines have developed plausible explanations as to why this relationship can exist. We argue that this phenomenon is theoretically possible in criminology and is applicable across all components of the crime triangle. In addition, it has been shown to occur in some empirical studies, especially place-based interventions such as police hot spot patrolling and place management strategies. The implications of these findings suggest that researchers should collect multiple pre- and post-test observations in order to recognize the potential for hormetic dose-response relationships and supplement analyses with non-linear techniques to examine whether an initial backfire effect indeed occurred. The knowledge of such information could lead to better specified analytic models and more effective crime prevention strategies.

Authors

• Shannon J. Linning, University of Cincinnati

• John E. Eck, University of Cincinnati