Crime and Inflation in US Cities

• In Event: Non-Criminal Justice Correlates of U.S. Crime Rates and Implications for Eliminating Mass Incarcetation

Abstract

Building on prior national-level research, the current study evaluates the relationship between crime and consumer price inflation in a sample of 17 large US cities between 1960 and 2013. Hybrid panel models are used to estimate the effects of inflation and covariates on acquisitive crime rates and homicide rates across and within cities over time. We find a significant and robust positive association between inflation and both acquisitive crime rates and homicide rates within cities over time, and no significant association between inflation and acquisitive crime and homicide rates across cities. We also find that the temporal relationship between homicide and inflation is partially mediated by acquisitive crime. The peak-to-trough decrease in inflation between 1980 and 2009 accounted for approximately one-third of the drop in acquisitive crime and one-half of the drop in homicide in the 17-city sample. Continued low inflation rates should restrain future crime increases in US cities. The consequences of low inflation for crime should become one of the guideposts for evaluating monetary policy in the United States.

Authors

• Richard Rosenfeld, University of Missouri - St. Louis

• Matt Vogel, University of Missouri - St. Louis

• Timothy McCuddy, University of Missouri - St. Louis