The Role of Aging Cohorts in Making Societies Safer

• In Event: Cross-national Studies of Violence

Abstract

Objective: What is the contribution of the age composition of a population in explaining differences in homicides rates between countries, and changes in homicide rates over time?
By investigating major shifts in homicide rates across multiple countries, I investigate if changes in the proportion of the population between 15 and 24 years of age corresponds to variations in homicides, controlling for alternative explanations.
Data: Recent developments from organizations such as the United Nations, the World Bank, and the World Health Organization have substantially improved the availability of country-level comparative data. Combining data from all these sources within a rigorous methodological framework should generate what is likely the best available data for the investigation of crime trends.
Methods: I use a combination of descriptive statistics, graphs, and longitudinal models to visualize and estimate the average effect of age composition on country-level homicide rates. I also identify and explore heterogeneity in this association.
Results: I present evidence suggesting that the aging of the population could have a very large contribution to sharp decreases in crime experienced by the United States and much of the developed world over the past few decades.

Author

• Mateus Renno Santos, University of Maryland