Disrupting Terrorist Assassinations Through Situational Crime Prevention: An Analysis of Successful vs. Unsuccessful Attacks

• In Event: Applications of Criminological Theories across the World

Abstract

Many criminology studies have applied situational crime prevention (SCP) to examine terrorism. However, the tactic of assassination has received limited attention from researchers compared to other tactics like suicide bombings. This paper begins to bridge the gap in the SCP and terrorism research by applying SCP to the analysis of successful vs. unsuccessful terrorist assassinations. Using data from the Global Terrorism Database (GTD), along with original data acquired from open sources, this paper seeks to determine how successful and unsuccessful assassinations compare with regards to different SCP variables. Examples of such variables include whether or not a guardian was present, the time of day the attack took place, and whether the attack occurred indoors or outdoors. Statistical analyses are conducted on a random sample of 100 successful and 100 unsuccessful assassinations that occurred between 2005 and 2014. Based on the SCP literature, it is hypothesized that some variables will be strongly associated with successful assassinations. Findings have important implications for prevention.

Authors

• Marissa Mandala, The Graduate Center, John Jay College / CUNY

• Joshua D. Freilich, The Graduate Center, John Jay College / CUNY