Prior Record, Offender Age, and Recidivism Risk

• In Event: Risk Assessment at Sentencing

Abstract

Offenders with prior records are more likely to be sentenced to prison and to receiver longer sentences. Often, the prior record enhancements are justified on utilitarian grounds of risk reduction: because offenders with prior records are more likely to reoffend, additional punishment should be assigned to reflect that risk. Because records accumulate with age, criminal history scores will tend to have greater impact on older offenders. Yet, paradoxically, one of the most robust findings of criminological research is the age-crime curve which describes how all offenders eventually age out of crime. Thus, older repeat offenders will be receiving their most punitive treatment at the very time they are becoming most likely to desist from criminal behavior. The current study uses survival analysis to explore the intersections between criminal history and age, and their respective roles in predicting recidivism in a sentencing guidelines state.

Author

• Rhys Hester, Penn State Univ & PA Commission on Sentencing