Overconfidence as a Consequence of Self-control and Peer Offending

• In Event: The Social Context of Decision Making

Abstract

In criminology, overconfidence is the perception that the likelihood of getting caught for an offence is lower for oneself than for others. Loughran et al. (2013, J Res Crime Delinq) recently demonstrated its criminological utility by showing it to be related to an increased likelihood of offending. The present study is focused on the capacity of self-control and peer offending to explain overconfidence. People with low self-control tend to give less consideration than others to the probability of detection. This makes it likely that a successful criminal act would be attributed to individual characteristics/skills rather than the inaction/incompetence of authorities. Regarding peer offending, peers may exaggerate their level of involvement in offending behavior given the social benefits of offending while minimizing failures as a face-saving mechanism; this focus on successful offending sends the message that it is less risky than in reality. Using a sample of North American university students from three geographically and demographically diverse universities (n=524), lower levels of self-control were found to predict higher levels of overconfidence, though peer offending was unrelated. Further, the effect of overconfidence on offending was not replicated which suggests that it may be a more important dynamic for adolescents than young adults.

Author

• Owen Gallupe, University of Waterloo