Shifting Tool Construction Paradigm from Single- to Multi-model Approach in Risk Assessment

• In Event: Risk Assessment: Tools, Models, and Implementation

Abstract

A generational shift of risk assessment assumes remarkable evolution in tool development methods. The experienced shifts between the first through fourth generation were represented by adding a new type of item in a single model instrument. However, issues derived from tool development and application within the single-model approach such as generalizability, predictive validity, and divergent practice have hardly been settled during the four generations. The emergence of multi-model instruments suggests a leap of tool construction paradigm from the single model approach. Instead of predicting whether an offender recidivate or not, or one specific type of future offense, instruments designed to equip a combination of models can predict various types of future offenses of an offender. This multi-model approach has the potential to increase predictive validity, improve tool functionality, and integrate assessment practices. To support the proposed change, this paper will provide the framework and describe advanced strategies utilized to build multi-model tools, underlying assumptions of the structural renovation, as well as preliminary evidence of improved predictive accuracy.

Authors

• Eunsuhk Choi, Washington State University

• Zachary Hamilton, Washington State University