Exposure to Local Violence and Women’s Pathways to First Union Formation in Mexico

• In Event: Crime and Justice in Latin America

Abstract

Past research has shown that local violence is associated with disruptions in union formation and fertility patterns among women who are exposed to it. Using the case of Mexico and its drastic fluctuations in drug-related violence, I evaluate the link between exposure to local violence and the pathways by which women are able to enter their first union, either in the form of marriage or cohabitation. Using competing risks Cox models and individual pregnancy and union histories collected by a national survey in 2009, I assess whether exposure to local violence impacts women’s risk of transitioning to their first union or first pregnancy. Among less educated women, my results suggest that increasing violence is associated with a lower risk of getting married (before getting pregnant or cohabiting for the first time). For less educated women who got pregnant before any marriage or cohabitation, exposure to violence is associated with a lower risk of getting married and a higher risk of entering a cohabitation at any point after conception. Overall, these findings suggest that local violence may be reinforcing socioeconomic inequality in affected communities, by disproportionately increasing the risk of cohabitation and decreasing the risk of marriage among disadvantaged mothers.

Author

• Monica L Caudillo, University of Maryland