Demographic Changes and Crime in Taiwan: An Age-Period-Cohort Analysis

• In Event: Applications of Criminological Theories across the World

Abstract

A large volume of prior western literature has explored the interconnections between demography and crime (e.g. age and crime) since at least the eighteenth century (e.g. Quetelet 1831), but the extant research is still largely limited to western nations and to the United States in particular. The goal of the current study is to overcome this shortcoming by examining the impact of demographic changes on crime in the context of Taiwan—a non-western society with distinct Chinese cultural characteristics. With the age-specific arrest and population data from Taiwan between 1970 and 2013, the study will apply the age-period-cohort-characteristics approach (O’Brien 1989) and assess the impact of population age structure and sex ratios changes over the past four decades on different types of crime (i.e. total, violent and property offenses). The assessment will focus on two demographic characteristics of birth cohorts: the relative cohort size to the general population and the cohort-specific sex ratio. Relatively large cohorts and oversupply of males in specific cohorts are expected to associate with high cohort-specific crime rates in Taiwan, controlling for the age and period effects. Theoretical and methodological implications of the findings will be discussed.

Author

• Yunmei Lu, Pennsylvania State University