Criminal History and Recidivism: How Well Does the Minnesota Sentencing Guidelines Criminal History Score Predict Risk of Reoffending?

• In Event: Risk Assessment at Sentencing

Abstract

Criminological literature on sentencing shows that an offender’s criminal history is a significant determinant of sentencing outcomes and sentence severity. This effect is particularly strong in systems employing sentencing guidelines; recommended guidelines sentences are much more severe for offenders with higher criminal history scores. These sentence enhancements are often justified on the assumption that an offender’s prior record is a good predictor of future recidivism risk. However, there is not much research on the extent to which an offender’s criminal history score actually predicts the frequency, timing, and severity of reoffending. This study attempts to move this area of research forward by examining the subsequent arrest and conviction records of approximately 14,000 Minnesota felons sentenced in 2003. We use data from the Minnesota Sentencing Guidelines Commission, the Bureau of Criminal Apprehension, and the Minnesota Department of Corrections. In addition to measuring how well an offender’s criminal history score and each score component predicts recidivism, the study will examine how prediction accuracy varies depending on factors such as offense type, sentence imposed, and the offender’s race, gender, and age. The findings and the implications will be discussed.

Authors

• Richard S Frase, University of Minnesota

• Kelly Mitchell, Robina Institute of Criminal Law and Criminal Justice