Exploring the Rise and Decline of Anti- State Terrorism in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA): A multi-sphere based explanation

• In Event: Developing Trajectories in Understanding and Countering Terrorism

Abstract

The Middle East and North Africa region (MENA) has become a main hub for global, as well as local, terrorist activity. Many of the groups committing terrorist attacks originate from, and are situated in, this region. Thus, it is essential to understand the particular social, economic, political, cultural and historic factors predominant in the region that create such fertile ground for the establishment and survival of terrorist movements. In this longitudinal study, a comprehensive anti- state terrorism model was utilized to examine the relationship between the rise and decline of terrorist activity and social, economic, political, cultural, as well as historic factors. Furthermore, an interrupted time series design was applied to explore the region’s susceptibility to global, as well as regional, change. The results of this study provide an in- depth understanding of the specific factors contributing to the rise and decline of anti- state terrorism in the MENA region, as well as suggest policy recommendations on effective ways to respond to the terrorist threat.

Author

• Maike Knoechelmann, Simon Fraser University