Evidence on How Individuals Consider Sanction Risk

• In Event: Decision Making of Criminal Justice Actors

Abstract

There is evidence to suggest that numerical probabilities are not treated consistently across the whole scale when judging uncertainty and risk. As well, there is research showing that individuals prefer to receive information about risk numerically, but transmit it to others verbally. In this paper, we explore the possibility that objective mathematical probability may not be the most appropriate metric for questions of sanction risk. Instead, subjective verbal measures may more closely mirror how laypeople naturally apprehend and understand risk. We present findings from a series of randomized experiments, embedded in a nationwide survey of American adults (18 and over) in 2016.

Authors

• Sean Patrick Roche, University at Albany,SUNY

• Justin T Pickett, University at Albany, SUNY