Cleaning the Dirty Pool: Methodological Considerations in Assessing the Impacts of Policies on State Imprisonment Over Time

• In Event: Design Challenges in Quantitative Research

Abstract

The impact of policies on substantive outcomes like imprisonment rates are some of the most pursued questions in the field of Criminology and Criminal Justice. The policy choices we make can have a profound impact on who and how many people are impacted by the justice system. From a research perspective, our ability to accurately reflect these policy impacts is highly influenced by the modeling choices we make. This paper specifically assesses different modeling techniques, variable construction, and interpretive approaches in regression based modeling of the impact of polices on state level imprisonment rates over time. We use sentencing reforms passed over the last 40 years to illustrate how the modeling choices we make greatly impact the results produced. Based on a series of evaluations we make recommendations and highlight important considerations when assessing imprisonment rates.

Authors

• Mark G Harmon, Portland State University

• Breanna Boppre, University of Nevada, Las Vegas