Considering the Implications of Commercial vs. Residential Areas in Modelling Street Robberies

• In Event: New Directions in Statistical Models to Study Neighborhood Crime

Abstract

The criminological literature has extensively discussed the impact of local places such as bars, restaurants, payday lenders, and banks in predicting the increase of street robberies in neighborhoods. This knowledge is particularly useful in explaining street robberies that occur in commercial areas. However, many street robberies also occur in residential areas where there are less or no local places common to commercial areas. Previous studies have rarely examined the differences in street robberies that occur in commercial areas vs. residential areas, limiting our understanding of mechanisms involved in explaining street robberies. Using data from a mid-sized Southeastern City in the United States from 2010-2011, we demonstrate the importance of differentiating street robberies that occur in commercial areas and in residential areas. In so doing, we propose several modelling strategies to deal with this issue of considering potentially differential mechanisms and to improve the predictive power of models.

Authors

• Riku Kawaguchi, North Carolina State University

• William R. Smith, North Carolina State University