The SAFER Pretrial Assessment Tool

• In Event: In God We Trust. All Others Must Bring Data

Abstract

Risk assessment tools have been utilized for decades, expanding and shifting to meet the needs posed by those within the criminal justice system. However, each tool varies based on the objective of the tool and the chosen population/jurisdiction. Equipped with the goals of developing a robust pretrial risk assessment tool, reducing jail populations, and efforts towards removing moderate-risk individuals from detention, this study describes the development of a tailored and localized tool for Spokane County. Using a large sample (N~15,000) LASSO Survival models were used to develop a customized pretrial risk assessment tool for Spokane County. Gender specific models were created predicting several outcomes during pretrial release, including failure to appear, as well as felony, violent, property and drug offending. Findings revealed moderate-to-strong prediction strength for all models (AUC= 0.66-0.78) and risk category cut points were set and estimated to reduce the Spokane jail population by 10 percent.

Authors

• Zachary Hamilton, Washington State University

• Mia Jane Abboud, Washington State University

• Alex Keigerl, Washington State University

• Jacqueline van Wormer, Washington State University