Stability and Change in Sexual and Nonsexual Offending: A Joint-trajectory Analysis

• In Event: Criminal Career and Life-course Perspectives on Sex Crime

Abstract

Contemporary criminal justice policies and recidivism research have portrayed sex offenders in terms of risk and risk probabilities, suggesting much stability in sex offending over long time periods. In recent years, with the emergence of criminal career research, this aggregate portrayal has seriously been challenged. The current study attempts to shed some light on this issue by examining the sexual and nonsexual offending trajectory in adulthood. The study is based on the criminal career data from a sample of over 500 individuals convicted at least once for a sex crime in the province of British Columbia, Canada. The complete criminal history of each of these individuals was coded from 18 years up to age 40. Using a life-history calendar methods, the criminal history was coded using successive 2-year window time-periods. The number, shape and prevalence of offending trajectories was explored using semi-parametric group-based modeling, adjusted for time-at-risk. The analyses were conducted separately for sexual and nonsexual offending. The findings highlight that, for this sample, sex offending is generally temporary, short-lived, part of a nonsexual offending trajectory. Departure from this general trend was also found, suggesting the presence of offending patterns. The theoretical and policy implications of these findings will be discussed.

Authors

• Patrick Lussier, Université Laval

• Evan McCuish, Simon Fraser University