The Real-Time Crime Forecasting Challenge: Gamification and the prediction of crime

• In Event: Big Data and Crime Prediction

Abstract

This paper provides an analysis of the National Institute of Justice (NIJ)’s Real-Time Crime Forecasting Challenge (the Challenge) using a blended surveillance studies and science and technology studies approach. The Challenge was issued in 2016, with the stated purpose of providing “researchers and the federal government with a better understanding of the potential for crime forecasting in America … [through] a comprehensive comparative analysis between current ‘off-the-shelf’ crime forecasting products used by many police departments and more innovative forecasting methods used by other scientific disciplines.” Instead of providing sustained support for researchers and research teams from educational institutions, the Challenge offers prizes to those who obtain results that are the most accurate and efficient based on policing data from the Portland Police Bureau. This marks a significant shift in the way that the NIJ is funding research and enrolling and rewarding researchers, or contestants. In identifying the underlying assumptions, this paper makes the case that the gamification of the Challenge engages specific researcher and criminal imaginaries, while reinscribing and reinforcing policing as usual. In sum, the case is made that this neoliberal shift in government funding and the rationalities employed will perpetuate extant disparities for criminalized populations and spaces.

Author

• Ariel Ludwig, Virginia Tech