Applying Cross-Sectional Data to Advance Understanding of Recent Trends in Youth Violence

• In Event: Innovations in Data Use to Expand Knowledge on Juvneile Delinquency and Violence

Abstract

Aggregate-level data sources on violence and property crime indicate substantial declines over the past several decades, both in the U.S. and in many other nations. Though prior research has documented the basic trends in offending, several key questions have been neglected, largely because the aggregate-level data and approaches typically used are not well-suited to investigate them. This study uses two nationally representative cross-sectional surveys of adolescents to explore the nature and possible sources of the 1990s crime drop among youth. We use individual-level survey data from the National Education Longitudinal Study of 1988 (NELS) and the Educational Longitudinal Study of 2002 (ELS) to examine changes in the prevalence of fighting among 10th graders from 1990-2002. Regression models indicate a significant drop in fighting during the time period, consistent with decreases as seen with aggregate-level data findings in the crime trend literature. Also, results suggest that the decline in fighting appears to be related to changes in adolescents’ future orientations.

Authors

• Amber Sanders, The Pennsylvania State University

• Eric P Baumer, Pennsylvania State University