The Effects of Punishment Discontinuities

• In Event: Legal Services for the Indigent: Guilty Pleas and Sentencing

Abstract

Research on criminal sentencing under guidelines suggests that “within cell” variation in outcomes is swamped by “between cell” differences. Thus, understanding the processes that determine how a case ends up in a particular cell, and the scope for discretion in that decision, is important for understanding criminal justice outcomes. We find evidence that the location in the sentencing grid of a case is of primary importance in determining the probability of incarceration and length of sentence. We also find evidence consistent with strategic assignment of cases to cells within the sentencing grid as well as evidence of strategic reactions to discontinuous jumps in the severity of punishment. Finally, we find evidence that suggests that judges and prosecutors differ in their beliefs about appropriate punishments as judges are more likely to formally depart from the sentencing guidelines at the point where punishment severity dramatically changes. This is consistent with judges holding different beliefs about the appropriateness of the punishments assigned to particular levels of criminal severity, and consistent with judges holding different beliefs about the appropriateness of assigning a particular case or defendant to a given level of criminal severity.

Authors

• Kirsten Butcher, Wellesley College

• Kyung Park, Wellesley College

• Anne Piehl, Rutgers University