Punishing Offenders: What Works? A Quasi-experimental Study About the Effects of Imprisonment on Recidivism

• In Event: Rethinking Prisoner Reentry

Abstract

The majority of offenders re-offend after release from prison, and recidivism after imprisonment is recognized as a widespread and important social problem. Using official criminal records data of a representative sample of individuals convicted in 2012 in the Netherlands (N = 18,577), this study examines effects of short-term imprisonment and community-based sanctions on recidivism. The challenge is to provide a plausible estimate of imprisonment effects, because selection effects in the criminal sentencing process tend to make the imprisoned group relatively crime prone compared to those receiving a community-based sanction. We use three different analytical approaches to account for such selection processes isolating effects of imprisonment, i.e. difference-in-difference, matching, and instrumental variables. Findings indicate that offenders recidivate significantly more after having been imprisoned compared to after having served a community-based sanction. We reflect on differences in outcomes between analytical strategies, and note directions for future research.

Authors

• Hilde Wermink, Leiden University

• Arjan Blokland, NSCR / Leiden University

• Pauline Schuyt, Leiden University

• Ben van Velthoven, Leiden Law School

• Jim Been, Leiden Law School

• Nikolaj Tollenaar, Research and Documentation Centre