Foreign Influences in Conflict Areas: Jihadist Responses to Outsiders

• In Event: Terrorist Tactics around the World: Influences and Ideology across Contexts

Abstract

Terrorist websites and social media activities indicate that not only do jihadist terrorist organizations view foreign influences as viable threats but also often treat unique foreign entities, such as civilians, military, and media, as part of one uniform group. As such, these terrorist organizations often call for attacks targeting all outside representatives, regardless of combatant, corporate, or civilian identity. The current study examines whether this tendency to treat foreigners indiscriminately influences target selection in conflict areas. Specifically, within the deterrence and game theoretic framework, it is hypothesized that an increase in the activities of one outside entity (foreign military, western media, international civil society) will result in an increase in attacks targeting other foreign entities. The study assesses this relationship in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Somalia using time series analysis between the years of 1994 and 2015. Results suggest that, in some countries, terrorist organizations do respond to the activities of one foreign entity by increasing activities against other outsiders.

Author

• Omi Hodwitz, University of Maryland