Robbery Triangles: Alternative Tests of the General Theory of Spatial Crime Patterns

• In Event: Crime and Place: Advancing Place Based Theory

Abstract

John Hipp’s general theory of spatial crime patterns (Criminology, 2016) is a comprehensive formalization of routine activity theory. Based on the most likely victim residences, the most likely offender residences, and the most likely routine activities and travel destinations of both victims and offenders, it predicts where and when most robberies will take place. Hipp’s tentative test of the theory is based on a large number of assumptions. The purpose of our study is to conduct an alternative test of the theory. Our test is informed by the measured locations of the robbery incidents and the measured home addresses of the offenders and the victims involved in the robberies. We analyze street robbery data from Chicago. Our data include over 48,000 geocoded robbery incidents, almost 13,000 Chicago offenders involved in 9,600 incidents and almost 50,000 Chicago-based victims in 44,000 incidents. In addition, the locations of a variety of legal and illegal business and transportation nodes are used. Utilizing these data and based on Hipp’s equations, we attempt to predict where offenders live, where victims live, and where crimes take place.

Authors

• Wim Bernasco, NSCR

• Richard Block, Loyola University Chicago