How have Declining Homicide Rates Contributed to Urban Revitalization? The Case of San Diego 1970-2010

• In Event: Neighborhood Change, Policy Interventions, and Crime/Disorder

Abstract

Violent crime rates have fallen in U.S. cities and in many places are at levels not seen since 1960. We examine 1) whether neighborhoods with increases in affluence were more likely to grow and to experience fewer killings, 2) whether this occurred near downtown, and 3) the extent to which they were previously disadvantaged and/or heavily Black or immigrant Latino neighborhoods. Meaning, after controlling for traditional variables, which urban neighborhoods were revitalized, which ones weren’t, and what role did drops in homicide play in attracting relatively affluent newcomers?
We merge data from the 1970, 1980, 1990, 2000, and 2010 decennial censuses and link it to geocoded homicide data gathered by hand from the San Diego Police Department over that same period to examine changes in homicide rates in 314 census tracts in the City of San Diego. We focus on three variables typically considered “gentrifiers,” or what we view as urban revitalizers: changes in high-income, college-educated, and non-Latino white adults.
We predict that declines in community homicide rates are associated with changes in high-income and college-educated residents across central city, low-income and majority Latino/Black neighborhoods. We predict these changes will hold across time and across tracts.

Authors

• Ramiro Martinez Jr., Northeastern University

• Eileen Avery, University of Missouri

• Janice Anne Iwama, University of Massachusetts Boston