Hot Spots of Violence and the Risk of Atrocity Crimes: Using Violence Indicators for Prediction and Prevention of Mass Atrocities

• In Event: Atrocity Crimes and Transitional Justice

Abstract

Risk assessments for mass atrocities, including genocide have used an array of root causes, such as structural, political and socio-economic indicators. Besides such root causes, more proximate causes have been identified in a number of process or stage models. Knowledge about the temporal and spatial dynamics of different types of violence, the role of different types of violence as precursors to atrocity crimes, or the way in which violence is contagious and embedded in relational dynamics is decisive for early intervention and prevention. This paper promotes a perspective on the evolvement of mass atrocity crimes from preceding violence, and explores the combined spatial and temporal dynamics of violence culminating in mass atrocities. We will use country level data for global regions, and the ACLED geo-coded data for Africa, which will allow for community level analyses in African countries (e.g. Rwanda, DRC). Conclusion as to intervention strategies across countries and within a country are drawn from the analyses.

Authors

• Daniel Birks, Griffith University

• Susanne Karstedt, Griffith University

• Michael Koch, University of Magdeburg, Germany