The Temporal Effects Surrounding Place-Based Crime Prevention Interventions

• In Event: Crime and Place: Predicting and Understanding Crime over Time

Abstract

Many evaluations of crime prevention strategies use simple before-and-after designs and often have limited follow up periods. Consequently, many of these evaluations are likely to fail to identify subtle, but important changes in crime that occur before, during, and after assessment periods. This leads to noncomprehensive assessments that only consider a small portion of the entire problem-solving process. Despite the growing literature identifying various temporal benefits and backfires – such as anticipatory benefits, residual deterrence, and initial backfire – nobody has systematically organized these possible impacts together. Here, we present a general framework linking all temporal effects together and show how they can vary by context and place. Specifically, developing place- and problem-specific timelines highlighting all possible temporal effects is most beneficial. Results suggest that considering all decisions within these timelines will be more cost-effective and produce greater crime reductions in the long-run. We also explore the variations in temporal sustainability of different place-based crime prevention techniques. Implications for theory, evaluation and policy is discussed.

Authors

• Shannon Linning, University of Cincinnati

• John Eck, University of Cincinnati

• Kate Bowers, University College London