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Previous research finds that the odds of adverse outcomes such as risky sexual behavior and criminal offending increase for children who have experienced with child maltreatment and/or the child welfare system. Although there is a wealth of literature that examines child maltreatment and child welfare experiences, the mechanisms behind these relationships are often unclear. For instance, findings routinely show that events, like being placed in a group home or running away from home, are associated with higher odds of criminal justice contact throughout the life-course. The problem with such findings, however, is that it is unclear if these events have a state-dependent effect on the lives of the victims, or if running away, being placed in a group home, and/or criminal behavior are all symptoms of the same underlying propensity. Using nationally representative data from the National Survey of Child Adolescent Well-Being, the current study simultaneously examines both propensities and state-dependent effects related to criminal behavior throughout the life-course. Findings indicate that while both are at play, certain events, such as being placed in a group home, significantly increase the odds of later criminal justice contact even when controlling for propensity.