The Relationship Between Risk of Recidivism and Sentencing Outcomes

• In Event: Risk Assessment at Sentencing

Abstract

Recent scholarship on the use of actuarial risk assessment in criminal sentencing has prompted a debate on the practical and ethical implications of using risk to inform sentencing decisions. Yet, we know little about the relationship between the informal consideration of risk and sentencing outcomes — the “status quo”. This paper examines the relationship between offenders’ risk of recidivism and sentencing outcomes in a large group of serious offenders convicted in Pennsylvania and released after serving their sentence. Matching offenders based on the presumptive guidelines range, I look at whether judges differentiate between offenders based on their risk of recidivism. To determine whether judges sentence the riskiest offenders to the most severe sentences I examine the likelihood of jail or prison incarceration, incarceration sentence length, and the likelihood of departure decisions below and above the guidelines.

Author

• Julia Laskorunsky, Penn State University