Further Testing the Trump Hypothesis: A Replication and Extension of Green’s Study

• In Event: Poster Session I

Abstract

David Green (2016) published in Social Science Quarterly a study on “The Trump Hypothesis: Testing Immigrant Populations as a Determinant of Violent and Drug-Related Crime in the United States,” in which he claims that there is no association between Mexicans or undocumented Mexican immigrants and violent or drug-related crime. He did find a minimal, but significant association between undocumented immigrants and drug-related crime. Green used rates of violent crime and drug-related crime by states, which were pooled for 2012-2014. These rates are compared to pooled data for foreign and Mexican nationals living in the United States, as well as estimates of undocumented Mexican and undocumented immigrants living in the United States. Correlation and multivariate regressions tests are conducted using various economic and demographic variables. The current empirical study involves a replication of Green’s original pooled data for 2012-2014, as well as an extension using pooled data for 2013-2015 from the same sources. I found that, like Green’s original study, there is no association between Mexican or undocumented Mexican immigrant and violent or drug-related crime.

Author

• Anthony Michalka, University of Missouri-St. Louis