Comparing Composite Dependent Variables to Individual Dependent Variables using Risk Terrain Modeling

• In Event: Poster Session II

Abstract

For the purposes of crime policy and reporting, various types of violent crime are often aggregated, most prominently in the context of the USDOJ's Uniform Crime Reporting system. The violent crime index takes for granted that there is coherence in a given jurisdiction among the discrete crime types that comprise it -- assault, homicide, rape, and robbery, yet studies of crime forecasting techniques and theories suggest that more precise aggregates might be warranted. This poster will look at the validity of the construct of aggravated violence in a medium-sized Northeast city when using risk terrain modeling. Aggravated violence is defined for these purposes as assault, robbery, and aggravated assault. Risk terrain modeling’s predictive validity of aggravated violence will be compared to the individual crime types’ predictive validity to determine whether an aggregate dependent variable is an appropriate approach when running risk terrain models.

Authors

• Henri Buccine-Schraeder, Rutgers School of Criminal Justice

• Joel M. Caplan, Rutgers School of Criminal Justice

• Paul Boxer, Rutgers University