Time Series Analysis of Geographic Concentrations and Patterns of Crime in Low Crime Rate Areas: Tokyo, Japan

• In Event: Poster Session I

Abstract

For the last 15 years, the crime rate in Tokyo has decreased consistently. However, it has not decreased across the area, but has decreased along with the changing geographical distribution of the areas. This study aims to examine the changing pattern in the geographical distribution of four types of property crimes in Tokyo from 2001 to 2016, by utilizing exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA). Using the number for each crime recorded and the area of the census district, we calculated the global and local Moran’s I statistical values and identified the clustering of each crime at a macro/micro-scale level and the annual changing patterns. This study revealed the following: a) At the global level, as crime decreases, the geographical distribution of crime tends to disperse, although the concentration is still statistically significant. b) Regarding all types of crime, in addition to the number of crime hot spots decreasing, the geographical stability of crime hot spots also decreases. Therefore, it can be concluded that both geographical dispersion and temporal destabilization have occurred in Tokyo.

Author

• Mamoru Amemiya, University of Tsukuba