Climate Change and Violence: Anomalously Warm Winter Temperatures and Philadelphia Violent Crime Rates

• In Event: Poster Session I

Abstract

What evidence is there about the current and predicted effects of climate change-associated weather patterns on violent crime? How do recent, unusual temperature anomalies in winter affect violent crime rates?

This paper explores the effects of anomalously warm winter temperatures on violent crime (using Philadelphia as a case study). It explores whether the number of winter days per week with temperatures at least two standard deviations higher than the 40-year average are associated with increases in violent crime rates. Statistically and practically significant evidence is found that the number of days of such anomalously warm weather is strongly correlated with increases in violent crime.

The increasing prevalence of such anomalously warm Winter days is argued to be connected to man-made climate change, so these findings are highly relevant to an under-explored consequence of climate change: local spikes in violent crime.

Author

• Christopher P. Thomas, The Graduate Center, John Jay College / CUNY