The Costly Plea “Deal”: Differential Outcomes for Massachusetts Criminal Defendants in Non-Sexual and Sexual Indictments

• In Event: Poster Session II

Abstract

Defendants facing felony prosecutions avoid trial through plea-bargaining in 95% of cases. Public opinion holds that plea agreements offer significant (and sometimes excessive) discounts for defendants, but emerging research suggests that plea-bargaining may not be a bargain at all.

The current project assessed plea-bargaining outcomes using multiple dimensions, by comparing public records for violent crime indictments entered in 2015 within three Massachusetts counties. In each, we collected defendants’ age and information about their charges, case proceedings, and the acting parties. We also documented whether a plea agreement occurred, and the case’s sentencing outcomes.

Multilevel regression analysis was used to control for state seriousness ratings while testing for outcome differences between cases resolved with, and without a plea. Additionally, models evaluated differences between sex offenses and other violent offenses, and considered the impact of prosecutorial and judicial discretion on these outcomes. Analyses demonstrated that plea-bargaining produced longer sentences, increased probation duration, and less credit for pretrial confinement. Further, we found that outcomes in sex crime cases were more severe than for violent, non-sexual crime cases. We conclude that defendants who accepted pleas did not benefit from entering these agreements.

Authors

• Annabelle Shestak, University of Massachusetts Lowell

• Kristy L. Shockley, University of Massachusetts Lowell

• Jaime M. Keenan, University of Massachusetts Lowell

• Toth R. Alexandria, University of Massachusetts Lowell

• Joseph E. Gonzales, University of Massachusetts Lowell