Detention as a Turning Point in Offending Rates: Examining Early "Changers" through a Life-Course Lens

• In Event: New Directions in DLC Research: Response to Sampson and Laub’s 2017 Farrington Address

Abstract

Research on incarceration typically shows a null or criminogenic effect. However, most of the existing literature examines outcomes on average, and fails to identify and model change for the subset of individuals who truly change course. The experience of detention may provide a turning point to elicit potential change - either positive or negative. The current paper will use a rich set of longitudinal administrative and self-report data from a population of adult males detained in The Netherlands to identify and explain change. Offending rates in the three years pre-detention will be compared to those in the three years post-release to isolate those who have patterns significantly lower or higher than their prior rate. Next, we will examine if concepts from the life-course literature (e.g., structural and subjective factors) distinguish these "decelerators" and "accelerators" from those who persist in their expected pattern of behavior. By exploring how desistance-related factors are associated with early changes in offending rates after detention, we will contribute to the discussion on reentry policy.

Authors

• Audrey Hickert, University at Albany, SUNY

• Shawn Bushway, University at Albany, SUNY

• Paul Nieuwbeerta, Leiden University

• Anja Dirkzwager, Netherlands Institute for the Study of Crime and Law Enforcement (NSCR)