Crime Distortion within the NYPD: A Potential Method for Estimating Crime Misclassification within CompStat Statistics

• In Event: Police Proactivity, Use of Force, and Misconduct (Organized by Division of Policing)

Abstract

Since the advent of CompStat in 1994, the NYPD contends that felony crimes have decreased throughout NYC, especially within the seven-major felony index crime categories. Eterno and Silverman’s (2012) seminal work examined this decline and suggested that the scope of the decrease was duplicitous and exaggerated by the department’s widespread practice of crime distortion. However, previous research has never attempted to quantify this phenomenon. This study addresses a critical gap within the existing CompStat literature by attempting to capture the magnitude of crime distortion. Using secondary crime data from the NYPD, the current study will examine burglaries and their suspected downward misclassifications, occurring within all NYC precincts, at the aggregate level, from 2000-2013. The goals of this research are to identify and summarize any precinct-level patterns of potential crime distortion using group-based trajectory modeling and econometric panel regression techniques.

Authors

• Amanda L. Thomas, John Jay College of Criminal Justice

• Kevin T. Wolff, John Jay College of Criminal Justice