Identifying Combinations of Risk Factors to Predict Juvenile Recidivism Using Conjunctive Analysis on the Montana Back On Track Risk Assessment

• In Event: Risk Assessments and Juvenile Offending

Abstract

This investigation will focus on risk factors found on the Montana Back on Track (BOT) juvenile risk and needs assessment. All youth who were administered a full BOT within the past five years in Montana will be included in the investigation (approx. n = 3400). The study will investigate how seven items drawn from the BOT pre-screen assessment predict recidivism outcomes. Conjunctive analysis of case configurations will be used to determine how the combination of these seven risk factors influence the likelihood of recidivism for youth in Montana juvenile justice systems and how these combinations differ by gender and race. This work builds upon previous risk assessment research that has largely focused on utilizing individual items to assess recidivism outcomes by examining how these items combine in higher order interactions to effect the probability of recidivism.

Authors

• Dusten Hollist, University of Montana

• Lonnie M. Schaible, University of Colorado Denver

• Patrick McKay, The University of Montana