The Climate Change-Temperature-Crime Relationship: Evidence from a Sample of 15 Large US Cities

• In Event: Climate Change and Green Conservationism

Abstract

Drawing on studies examining the seasonal relationship between temperature and crime, green criminologists have hypothesized that the temperature increase generated by climate change will generate a rise in crime. Seasonal temperature changes are, however, quite large compared to annualized temperature changes associated with climate change, and annualized temperature change may, consequently, have little effect on crime. We test this argument using crime specific rate and count data and temperature data for 15 large, geographically diverse US cities over 15 years for eight Part I UCR crime categories. Given the positive hypothesized relationship between climate change, temperature and crime, the initial test of this relationship requires only the use of temperature-crime correlations over time. For our sample, city-specific and crime specific correlations for rate and number of crimes were estimated (N = 234). The hypothesized relationship was found to be insignificant in 79% of cases. The implications of these results are discussed.

Authors

• Michael J. Lynch, University of South Florida

• Paul B. Stretesky, Northumbria University

• Michael A. Long, Oklahoma State University

• Kim Barrett, Eastern Michigan University