Exploring the social dimensions of crime risk perceptions

• In Event: Decision Making and Behavioral Economics: Peers, Situations and Police

Abstract

Under the Bayesian updating framework, actors adjust crime risk perceptions over time as they accumulate experience with punishment and punishment avoidance through criminal involvement. Empirical evidence supports this notion emphasizing the importance of experience in the updating process. Less attention has been given to social situations as potential updating signals. It is well documented, however, that situational factors can at least temporarily influence risk estimates. Thus, the current study investigates whether social signals, or the social characteristics inherent in a criminal decision-making context, influence perceptions of arrest risk for different criminal offenses. Specifically, we embedded a series of experimental vignettes in a survey to manipulate various social factors testing whether these signals influence perceptions of arrest risk for offending. Additionally, we test whether social risks and rewards condition this relationship.

Authors

• Timothy Barnum, Texas A&M University - San Antonio

• Greg Pogarsky, University at Albany, SUNY