Explaining the Temporal Clustering of Gun Sales

• In Event: Getting a Gun: Investigating Gun Acquisition and Concealed Carry Permits

Abstract

This research explains the temporal clustering of firearm sales. It is hypothesized that gun owners purchase firearms based on risk perception and gun sales tend to increase, sometimes dramatically, in the aftermath of an antecedent event such as mass shootings. Three types of events are used to test and refine the argument: 1) contentious gun control legislation, 2) gun bans on certain types of weapons, and 3) mass shooting events. The results from time-series analyses indicate that bans on certain types of weapons precede spikes in gun sales before declining. On the other hand, mass shootings and the passage of contentious gun control legislation indicates a gradual rise in gun sales, but at a much smaller increase. The model put forth in this article complements prior work explaining in part the impact of events on firearm sales.

Author

• Janice Anne Iwama, American University