Correctional Policy Path Dependence: A Process-Tracing Analysis of Incarceration Rate Reductions in U.S. States

• In Event: Correctional Policy and Pathways to Prison

Abstract

Incarceration rates in most U.S. states have declined in recent years. A growing body of research seeking to understand and explain this “climb down” emphasizes the role of the 2008 financial crisis (Phelps 2016) and a growing consensus across the political spectrum concerning incarceration reductions (Travis 2014). Drawing from ideas of process tracing and path dependence (Howlett 2009), this study builds upon this emerging body of research by investigating both the timing and the magnitude of these declines. Event history models were created to identify triggers of initial declines in states’ incarceration rates, and hybrid time series models were created to probe the factors that drove and sustained the declines over time. We specifically test three key explanations for declines in incarceration rates: state economic pressure, political factors, and corresponding decreases in rates of violent crime. Findings from event history models indicate that economic pressures, including state debt and unemployment, were main triggers of declines. Results from time series models show that these pressures similarly sustained declines over time. Interestingly, however, time series models identify several additional factors that, while not acting as catalysts of declines, seem to have played a role in sustaining such declines during the time series.

Authors

• Rusty Patrick Schnellinger, Kent State University

• Tiffany Bergin, NYC Criminal Justice Agency

• Susanne Karstedt, Griffith University

• Michael Koch, Social Planning Administration of Detmold, Germany