Seasonality Effects on Environmental Risk Factors

• In Event: Place, Time, and Crime

Abstract

This paper looks at seasonality on both the season and month (macro) level and temperature and precipitation (micro) level in relation to environmental risk factors related to gun crime in Baltimore using risk terrain models. The seasonality of crime is the idea that crime rates vary by season. This idea was first advanced by Quetlet (1842) who observed changes in crime patterns based on the season of the year. The intersection between these two areas, environmental risk factors and the seasonality of crime, has not been previously examined. The study utilizes gun crime data from Baltimore’s open data portal, city infrastructure data from Baltimore’s open data portal, and business data compiled from Infogroup, to construct Risk Terrain Models that are used to analyze gun violence in Baltimore. After the models were created a post hoc analysis utilizing temperature and precipitation data from Wunderground was conducted to examine how month, season, temperature, and precipitation impacted the various factors that were significant in the model.

Authors

• Jason Szkola, John Jay College / CUNY Graduate Center

• Eric L. Piza, John Jay College of Criminal Justice

• Grant Drawve, University of Arkansas