Modus Operandi of Terrorist Groups Using Archetypal Analysis

• In Event: Joining and Recruiting Terrorists

Abstract

This research considers modus operandi of terrorist groups in a quantitative fashion using archetypal analysis.

Archetypal analysis seeks pure types in a quantitative fashion, identifying both the optimal number of archetypes and the specific archetypes. Previous analyses identified seven archetypal terrorist events-- abortion bombings, poisonings, Aryan hate, hostage-taking, fire/bomb for damage, assassination, and the catastrophic Big Bad. Additionally, every other event can be characterized as a mix of these pure types, presenting how strongly the observation corresponds with each archetype ranging from 0 (no similarity) to 1 (complete similarity).

This analysis builds off that previous research, examining the set of events conducted by an entity rather than the events individually. Using data from the Global Terrorism Database, we will look at the set of events conducted by in terms of those seven archetypal dimensions, quantitatively considering the averages and variance of the event set. The nature of the events undertaken by a group represent the group’s method for attacks, a quantitative reflection of their modus operandi. The similarities and differences of the groups will be also be considered with other characteristics of the groups, such as size and ideology.

Author

• Russell P. Lundberg, Sam Houston State University