Childhood and Adolescent Predictors of Offending: A Systematic Review of Meta-analyses

• In Event: The "Big Picture" of Life Course Research: Systematic Reviews, Population Trends, and Cross-National Comparisons

Abstract

Introduction: In the last two decades, meta-analyses have provided major findings about
developmental predictors of offending. However, there has been little focus on the relative
ability of these factors to predict offending behaviour. Therefore, using meta-analytic findings,
the two aims of this study are 1) to summarize all well-established knowledge about
developmental (explanatory) predictors of offending, and 2) to sort those predictors according
to their importance (effect size).
Methods: Following PRISMA guidelines, we conducted a systematic review of meta-analyses
analysing childhood and adolescent predictors of later offending. Multiple online scientific
databases were searched from their start until January 25, 2020.
Results: Ten meta-analyses addressed longitudinal predictors of general offending, while three
meta-analyses addressed longitudinal predictors of persistence in crime among justiceinvolved
youths. The strongest developmental predictors of general offending were related to
family/parental dimensions. Delinquent peers, school/employment problems, family
problems, certain types of mental health problems, and alcohol/substance abuse were the
most important predictors of persistence in crime.
Discussion: Our findings suggest the crucial role of family-related developmental predictors in
preventing offending. The predictors of persistence in crime highlight the multisystemic
nature of persistent antisocial behaviour.

Authors

• Miguel Basto-Pereira, William James Center for Research, ISPA-Instituto Universitário

• David Farrington, Institute of Criminology, University of Cambridge