Vacancy and Crime in St. Louis: Temporal Dynamics Over 20 Years

• In Event: Communities and Place: Housing and Neighborhood Crime

Abstract

Vacant buildings are often associated with increases in community crime. Most research in this area is cross-sectional, and one puzzle from prior research is the temporal nature of the relationship between vacancy and crime. One possibility is that the connection between vacancy and crime is relatively contemporaneous, suggesting a short-term process. Another possibility is that the connection between vacancy and crime is a much longer process, implying a lagged effect of vacancy on crime. To examine this puzzle, I investigate vacancy patterns in St. Louis Missouri, which has consistently one of the highest rates of vacancy of major cities in the United States. Using neighborhood data, one aim of the current project is to plot and map the trends in vacancy over the last 20 years. As a second aim, I examine these patterns using a series of structural equation models.

Author

• Adam Boessen, University of Missouri - St. Louis