Predicting Guilty Pleas from Confessions and Misconduct in Known Exonerations

• In Event: Wrongful Convictions 3

Abstract

Confessions are considered very compelling indicators of guilt and increase the chances of guilty verdicts at trial. However, nearly 95% of convictions are secured through guilty pleas. The presence of a confession has been shown to influence a later guilty plea for innocent defendants. Further, the presence of a confession could entice prosecutors or police to engage in forms of misconduct, like withholding exculpatory evidence, which, in turn, could also influence an innocent defendant to plead guilty. The present study examines the role of false confessions, prosecutorial misconduct, and withholding exculpatory evidence on false guilty pleas using data from the National Registry of Exonerations. We find that although the direct effect of a confession on a guilty plea is non-significant, an indirect relationship exists such that the presence of a confession increases the odds of misconduct, which in turn predicts a lower odds of a guilty plea. Results will be discussed in application to impacts on prosecutorial oversight and open-file discovery policies.

Authors

• Talley Bettens, George Mason University

• Allison D. Redlich, George Mason University